ethanol. here we go...

One of the controverses on the “ethanol fever” is that the production implies in the use of large areas of cultivation for monoculture, generating impacts on biodiversity, water use and soil fertility.  

Well, let's have a look on the maps presented by Banerjee&others at Yale, march 2008.

1. The red spots are sugarcane fields and as shown they are close to the Atlantic Forest. The red spots scattered up north mean they are in Cerrado area. 

So if ethanol threatens primary and secondary forests, probably these are in Cerrado and of Atlantic Forest reminiscent (in the coast).

2. According to Bannerjee et al. 2008, sugar cane production is projected to increase 141% by the year 2020 while the area cultivated will increase by 121%. Ethanol production is projected to increase by 265%, domestic consumption by 249% and exports by 324% (UNICA, 2007). 

The map below shows that if today sugar cane/ethanol production are quite concentrated in Southeast Brazil (Sao Paulo and surrounding States), it might expand to Cerrado area, other Atlantic Forest parts and also to the borders of the Amazon bioma (the upper red circle in the Maranhao State).

                      

3. Bioethanol has a different dynamic from that of biodiesel. 

According to study published by ISPN, 2008 currently the production of biodiesel is already made in agricultural frontiers, such as the Cerrado region, which is a “barrier of protection” for Amazônia. Summing up the pressure of the southeastern sugar cane and the agrobusiness on this bioma, with the comparative advantages (in special the low value of the land) of cattle ranching and soy production in the Amazon, biofuels catalyze the reduction of tropical deforestation in Brazil.

But biodiesel production seems to be positively correlated to soya international prices. According to Rodrigo Junqueira/ISA- Brazil, since early 2008, when commodities prices skyrocketed in the international market, none of the biodiesel mills worked. Quoting Junqueira, "who will burn soya when the international price is so high?". Seems that no one Rodrigo...